8. Capacity — right on a good day, and it collapses on a bad one

8.1 The draft's own arithmetic, checked

A 30 km loop driven continuously passes any point every ~45 min. Over 8 productive hours
that is ~10.7 circuits. At a median-20-minute promise (half a circuit plus travel), the
loop supports roughly 8 groups. The draft's ceiling is arithmetically defensible.

8.2 ⚠️ Loop size is a hard product constraint, and e-bikes make it worse

E-bikes extend range, which tempts a longer loop. Do not take the bait.

Break-even is 14.3 riders/day (see the The numbers, sensitivity and scenarios
chapter). A 60 km loop cannot break even on one van.

This is decisive and it points at Clare. E-bike range is a reason to keep the loop short
and ride it slowly with more stops, not a reason to extend it. Otago Central Rail Trail
reports 53% of users on e-bikes on flat easy terrain — the demand for e-bikes is about
comfort and confidence, not distance.

8.3 The real ceiling is the worst 30 minutes, not the average

The draft models an average day. The failure mode is a specific one:

A wet Saturday at 18 riders/day means up to six groups requesting extraction inside the
same hour. A 5-seat Crew Van carries 4 passengers and ~4 bikes per trip. Six groups
of three = 18 people and 18 bikes = five round trips = 2+ hours. The last group waits
90 minutes in the rain. That is a refund event, a review event, and — given the mandatory
bail-out in §6.5 of the season-length chapter — the group most likely to ride home drunk
instead of waiting.

Mitigations, in cost order:

Recommendation: cap at 18 riders/day on one van, and hold a hard weather-cancellation
policy rather than pricing for a rescue surge you cannot deliver.

8.4 ⚠️ The Barossa access model consumes the capacity it needs

If each group needs 2 van hops/day to reach off-trail cellar doors, and each hop is ~20 min
round trip with loading, then 6 groups = 12 hops = 240 minutes = half the productive day
— before a single rescue, before bike delivery, before wine collection.

Barossa therefore needs roughly 1.5–2× the van capacity per rider that Clare needs. A
second van costs $53,674/yr (van $10,912 + driver $38,293 + fuel $4,469 ex-GST) and
must add ≥495 riders/year = 7.5 riders/day of sellable capacity to pay for itself.

This inverts the region choice. Barossa has 4.6× Clare's short-let supply and 2.5×
the day trips — and a structurally worse cost per rider, because its product needs the
van to work rather than to wait. Clare's trail does for free what Barossa's van has
to be paid to do.

8.5 Flat batteries — the dominant rescue event, and the cheapest thing to fix

A 33 km Riesling loop is comfortably inside the range of any 500–750 Wh hire e-bike, so
flat batteries should be rare on Clare. On Barossa (40 km spine + off-trail detours =
55–65 km) with novices leaving assist on maximum all day, they become the most frequent
and most predictable rescue event.

Van-carried batteries vs pre-positioned batteries:

At 20 battery events/season the pre-positioned option saves ~$640/yr of van time — a 4-season
payback, which is marginal on cost alone. The real argument is different: a swap keeps the
rider riding. A van pickup ends their day, ends their wine buying, and invites a refund
request. A swap costs 5 minutes and they carry on. Do it, and justify it on revenue
retention rather than cost.

8.6 Competitive benchmarks — and the pricing signal hiding in them

The pricing finding, and it is the most valuable line in this document

Unbundle the product at market rates: e-bike day hire $90–100 + shared wine
shuttle $90–190 = $180–290 if bought separately. Cellar Door Cycling sells both,
bundled, delivered to the door, at $189 — the bottom of the unbundled range.

TrailHopper charges up to $189.95 for the van alone, with no bikes.

The draft has underpriced. And per the break-even analysis in the next chapter,
price is the variable this business is by far the most sensitive to.