9–10. The numbers, sensitivity and scenarios
9.1 Basis of preparation
- All figures ex-GST. Revenue at $189 GST-inclusive = $171.82 net. Costs shown
net of recoverable input tax credits. GST registration is mandatory above $75,000
turnover — VERIFIED (ATO).
Tours are ordinary taxable supplies. Properly recovering input tax credits is worth
~$9,000/year and the draft ignores it in both directions. - Base case: Clare Valley, owned Crew Van, MA000063 Grade 2, insurance mid case.
- Owner's labour NOT COSTED. See the three assumptions chapter.
- Capital charge on owner's equity NOT COSTED in the P&L (shown separately in the
2. The van chapter).
Cost structure:
| Ex-GST | |
|---|---|
| Revenue per rider | $171.82 |
| Variable per rider (ex-CAC) | $28.42 |
| CAC per rider | $55 (Y1) → $42 (Y2) → $35 (Y3+) |
| Contribution per rider (steady state) | $108.40 |
| Fixed per operating day (driver $580.20 avg + fuel $67.72) | $647.92 |
| Fixed regardless of days (Y3, 20 bikes) | $59,470 |
EBIT = Days × Riders/day × $108.40 − $59,470 − $647.92 × Days
9.2 P&L, Years 1–3
Ramp assumptions — ESTIMATED, and deliberately not heroic. No published Australian
regional-operator utilisation benchmark exists (Arival's sits behind Pro access).
Anchored instead on VERIFIED short-let occupancy in the same postcodes (Barossa 46%,
Clare 53%) and on the fact that a weekend-only self-guided product has near-zero
repeat purchase and depends entirely on discovery.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating days | 52 | 60 | 66 |
| Riders/day (avg) | 4.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 |
| Riders | 208 | 480 | 792 |
| Fleet (bikes) | 10 | 15 | 20 |
| Bike utilisation | 40% | 53% | 60% |
| Revenue (net of GST) | $35,739 | $82,474 | $136,081 |
| Variable COGS (ex-CAC) | ($5,911) | ($13,642) | ($22,509) |
| Gross profit | $29,828 | $68,832 | $113,572 |
| Gross margin | 83.5% | 83.5% | 83.5% |
| CAC | ($11,440) | ($20,160) | ($27,720) |
| Contribution | $18,388 | $48,672 | $85,852 |
| Driver (Sat/Sun split) | ($30,170) | ($34,812) | ($38,293) |
| Van (depn, rego, motor ins., service, tyres) | ($10,912) | ($10,912) | ($10,912) |
| Fuel | ($3,522) | ($4,063) | ($4,469) |
| Liability + fleet insurance | ($23,850) | ($23,850) | ($23,850) |
| Bike fleet depreciation + battery fund | ($6,727) | ($10,091) | ($13,455) |
| Storage / depot | ($5,455) | ($5,455) | ($5,455) |
| Admin, accounting, phone | ($3,636) | ($3,636) | ($3,636) |
| Booking software + web | ($862) | ($862) | ($862) |
| Compliance / ASIC / permits | ($1,300) | ($1,300) | ($1,300) |
| Total fixed overhead | ($86,434) | ($94,981) | ($102,232) |
| EBIT | ($68,046) | ($46,309) | ($16,380) |
| add back depreciation | $9,730 | $11,955 | $14,180 |
| EBITDA | ($58,316) | ($34,354) | ($2,200) |
9.3 Cash and payback
Startup capex (ex-GST — GST recovered on the first BAS):
| Item | Amount | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Van — used HiAce Crew Van ~$60,500 driveaway | $55,000 | ⚠️ used price NOT VERIFIED |
| 10 e-bikes @ $3,500 | $31,818 | ESTIMATED |
| Enclosed 6–8 bike trailer | $9,091 | ESTIMATED |
| Helmets (20 × $60), locks, racks, repair kit, charging setup | $4,091 | ESTIMATED |
| 3 spare batteries (pre-positioning) | $2,182 | ESTIMATED |
| Branding, website, photography | $5,455 | ESTIMATED |
| Legal — SA-compliant waiver + hire agreement | $2,727 | ESTIMATED |
| ASIC company registration | $636 | VERIFIED |
| Total Year 0 capex | $111,000 | |
| Year 2: +5 bikes | $15,909 | |
| Year 3: +5 bikes | $15,909 |
Cumulative cash position (EBITDA − capex; nil tax, since loss-making):
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | ($58,316) | ($34,354) | ($2,200) |
| Capex | ($111,000) | ($15,909) | ($15,909) |
| Annual cash flow | ($169,316) | ($50,263) | ($18,109) |
| Cumulative | ($169,316) | ($219,579) | ($237,688) |
⚠️ Peak funding requirement ≈ $240,000, plus working capital.
The business does not reach EBITDA break-even within three years on this ramp.
Worst month for cash — Year 1, September: approximately −$70,000 to −$85,000.
Bike fleet purchase, the annual insurance premium, and branding all land in the pre-season
month, against zero revenue. Three mitigations, all cheap:
- Monthly premium funding on the insurance — spreads $23,850 across 10 months.
- Chattel mortgage on the van — moves $55,000 out of the September column.
- Stage the fleet: buy 6 bikes, add 4 in December once demand is proven.
Worst month in steady state: July. Zero revenue, ~$3,500 of unavoidable outflow
(storage, admin, van rego, software). Manageable, but it means a real cash buffer must
survive the winter every year.
Payback. At the mature run-rate of 18 riders/day the business generates ~$26,500 EBIT
/ ~$40,700 EBITDA. Against $237,688 of cumulative deficit, payback is Year 9 or beyond.
That is not an investable return. At $229 the mature EBIT is $69,742 and payback comes
back inside 4 years from Year 4 — which is the entire argument of §9.4.
9.4 Break-even
| Measure | Draft | Corrected |
|---|---|---|
| Contribution per rider | $124 | $108.40 |
| Fixed cost per operating day (66 days) | $755 | $1,549 |
| Break-even, riders per day | 6.1 | 14.3 |
| Break-even, riders per year | ~427 | 944 |
| Break-even as % of assumed capacity (18/day) | 34% | 79% |
The draft's break-even sat comfortably below its assumed capacity. The corrected one
sits at 79% of it. There is almost no headroom between break-even and the physical
ceiling of one van — which means the business has to run near-full to survive, on a
product whose demand is weather-dependent and weekend-only.
Break-even riders/day by price (66 days):
| Price | Contribution/rider | Break-even riders/day | Viable on one van? |
|---|---|---|---|
| $149 | $72.03 | 21.5 | ❌ Above practical capacity — cannot break even |
| $189 | $108.40 | 14.3 | ⚠️ 79% of capacity |
| $229 | $144.76 | 10.7 | ✅ 59% of capacity |
| $279 | $190.22 | 8.1 | ✅ 45% of capacity |
10. Sensitivity and scenarios
All at 66 operating days, $189, 18 riders/day, CAC $35 ex-GST, unless varied. EBIT, AUD.
Price
| $149 | $189 | $229 | $279 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ($16,661) | $26,546 | $69,742 | $123,748 |
Riders per day
| 4 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($73,615) | ($44,998) | ($16,380) | $26,546 | $69,473 |
Season length
| 25 weekends (50d) | 35 weekends (70d) | 45 weekends (90d) |
|---|---|---|
| $5,694 | $31,760 | $57,825 |
CAC
| $20 | $40 | $80 |
|---|---|---|
| $44,366 | $20,606 | ($26,914) |
⚠️ Which single variable dominates
Normalised to a ±10% move in each input, from the base case:
| Rank | Variable | EBIT impact per 10% | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PRICE | ±$20,414 | 1.00× |
| 2 | Riders per day | ±$12,878 | 0.63× |
| 3 | Season length | ±$8,602 | 0.42× |
| 4 | CAC | ∓$4,158 | 0.20× |
PRICE is the dominant variable by a factor of 1.6 over volume and 4.9 over CAC.
This matters more than the ranking suggests, for three reasons:
- Price is the only one of the four the operator sets with a keystroke. Volume
requires demand, season length requires weather, CAC requires channel-building.- The market evidence says there is headroom (see the competitive benchmarks in
the capacity chapter): the unbundled components cost $180–290 separately,
TrailHopper charges up to $189.95 for the van alone, and the guided competitor
sells at $195–275.- At $149 the business cannot break even at any volume one van can serve. At $229
it breaks even at 10.7 riders/day and pays back inside four years. The whole outcome
turns on ~$40 of ticket price.
The recommended pricing architecture
Tiered rather than flat, which captures the price finding at zero extra fixed cost:
- Analogue hybrid: $189 (cheaper bikes, lower maintenance, lower depreciation)
- E-bike: $229 — a $40 upgrade, against a VERIFIED market anchor of $37.50/day
(Roar) and $25/day (Tour de Vines) - At the Otago-observed 53% e-bike attach, blended price = $210.20
EBIT at 18 riders/day with tiered pricing: $49,439 — 1.9× the flat-$189 base case,
from a pricing change alone.