Financial Model And P&L — break-even, funding, and the insurance hole
Built: 2026-08-12 · Currency: AUD · Region modelled: South Australia
(Clare Valley / Riesling Trail primary, Barossa Valley secondary)
Purpose of this document. It is a stress test of the draft unit economics in the
Overview and Model And Distribution chapters, not an elaboration of them. Every
line in the draft was re-derived from published Australian sources rather than
inherited. Most lines moved. Several moved a long way.
| Label | Meaning |
|---|---|
| VERIFIED | Taken from a published source, URL given |
| ESTIMATED | Derived by reasoning from verified inputs; the reasoning is stated |
| ASSUMED | No basis found. Needs a quote before anyone acts on it |
Nothing in this document is a quote. Three lines — liability insurance, the
Riesling Trail commercial permit, and SA passenger-transport accreditation — are
material and unpriced. See the 12–14. The three assumptions the model rests on, other
verified items, and the verdict chapter.
The draft claims ~$103,000/year of contribution per van at 18 riders/day.
Rebuilt on verified rates, at the same 18 riders/day, the answer is
~$26,500 of EBIT — and that is before the owner's own labour.
Bridge from the draft's $103,390 to the corrected number
Each step holds 18 riders/day constant and changes one input.
| # | Change | Why | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Draft as published | 70 days × [(18 × $124) − $755] | $103,390 |
| 1 | Revenue is GST-inclusive | $189 ticket = $171.82 net. The draft counted the ATO's $17.18 as its own margin | $81,743 |
| 2 | Variable COGS $25 → $28.42 ex-GST | Maintenance, battery sinking fund, theft/damage, res-system fee — see the 4. The bike fleet chapter | $74,000 |
| 3 | CAC $40 → $35 ex-GST (steady state) | Draft was close on this one. Small credit back | $77,700 |
| 4 | Driver $450/day → $507.70 Sat / $652.70 Sun | Real award rates, SA, casual + super + workers comp — see the 3. The driver chapter | $68,600 |
| 5 | Van $155/day → $260/day | Owned van properly costed incl. depreciation, passenger-carrying motor cover, and the higher km an access van does — see the 2. The van chapter | $61,200 |
| 6 | Insurance $150/day → ~$361/day | $23,850/yr mid-case liability stack over 66 days — see the 5. ⚠️ Insurance chapter | $44,100 |
| 7 | Fixed costs the draft has no line for | Bike-fleet depreciation, battery fund, storage, admin, compliance, booking software | $15,500 |
| 8 | 70 operating days → 66 | There are only 60.6 weekend days in an Oct–Apr season — see the 6. Season length chapter | $14,800 |
| 9 | Input tax credits recovered on costs | GST back on fuel, maintenance, insurance, depreciation base | +$26,546 |
The three largest deltas are (7) forgotten fixed costs −$28.7k, (1) GST −$21.6k,
and (6) insurance −$17.1k. Note that two of those three are not judgement calls —
GST and the missing cost lines are arithmetic. The draft's error is mostly omission,
not optimism.
Where the draft was right
Genuine credit, because an adversarial read should say so:
- CAC at $40/rider is defensible at steady state (blended mid = $37 GST-incl).
(Customer acquisition chapter) - Payment fees at $4/rider is almost exactly right ($4.30 blended).
(Customer acquisition chapter) - Bike depreciation at $13/rider was conservative, not aggressive — a 3-year life
on a bike used 70 days/year is pessimistic; 5 years is defensible, giving ~$8.
(Bike fleet chapter) - The "shared van across independent groups" insight is sound and is the only reason
any version of this works. The corrected numbers do not kill the thesis. They kill
the price point.