Model And Distribution
Unit economics — the roving van
Modelled from published Australian rates. See the Financial Model chapter for the
rebuilt P&L, which supersedes these figures.
Fixed cost per operating day: van hire $110 + fuel $45 + driver $450 +
allocated insurance $150 = ~$755/day.
Variable cost per rider: ~$25. Marketing/CAC assumed $40/rider.
At $189pp, contribution per rider = $124, break-even ≈ 6.1 riders/day.
The rebuilt model in the Financial Model chapter puts break-even at 14.3
riders/day, peak funding at ~$240k, and finds insurance cannot be priced at all.
Where the two disagree, the Financial Model chapter is the later and better number.
The channel cost is understated above. A 20% OTA take on a $189 product is $38
and a 30% take is $57 — against the $40 CAC assumed. It is a commission off the top,
not a marketing spend that can be throttled, and it sits on top of booking
software fees (Rezdy 3%, Checkfront 3%, Bókun 1–1.5%).
And the ceiling is real. At 18 riders/day across ~70 operating days, one van
returns roughly $100k a year in contribution before overheads. One van is an
owner-operator income, not a company.
The load-bearing caution. The industry's own arithmetic says a dedicated van
is justified at 6–8 riders. This model puts one van behind six to eight
groups — 18–24 riders. As the Italy research put it: "DuVine puts a van behind
seven people. Cellar Door Cycling proposes putting one behind three times that
many. That is either the innovation or the over-reach."
Second revenue line
Riders who don't have to carry bottles buy more bottles — a measurable benefit to
the cellar doors, making a referral fee or commission a plausible second line.
Two corrections. First, no operator anywhere in the 12-country scan
discloses receiving winery commission, referral fees or funded support. Second,
an earlier version of this plan proposed pitching wineries on the Wine Australia
Cellar Door Grant — that pitch is withdrawn. The grant requires ≥A$1,207,000
in rebatable sales (excluding essentially every small cellar door), is capped and
rationed, pays 29% of notional wholesale rather than retail, closed for 2026
applications, and is paused for 2028-29 and 2029-30.
Channels
Short-let hosts in the region are the highest-intent channel. Airbnb Experiences
is the most aligned marketplace — the customer is already sitting in an Airbnb in
the region — and it carries the only on-the-record own-site rate found: 20%.
One hard constraint: GetYourGuide requires a supplier cancellation rate of
≤1.0% and a no-show rate of ≤0.2%. Any "we run if we get six" minimum-numbers
policy means delisting. The product either runs for one couple, or it stays off the
major OTAs. A clean resolution exists — price per vehicle rather than per person,
as Buller Adventures does, and the small group pays for the empty seats.